Hurricane Teddy May Strike Bermuda Just One Week After Paulette, Then Could Threaten Atlantic Canada Next Week - The Weather Channel

Teddy Becomes a Major Hurricane, Takes Aim on Bermuda

Hurricane Teddy might pass near Bermuda early next week.
It could be Bermuda's second hurricane strike in one week.
Beyond that, the forecast is challenging.
Teddy may be pulled close to Atlantic Canada, possibly even parts of New England, next week.

Hurricane Teddy may be the second hurricane to strike Bermuda in a week, then could be a danger for parts of Atlantic Canada later next week.

Teddy became the second "major" hurricane - at least Category 3 intensity - of the frenetic 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, Thursday morning, based on satellite imagery showing a more well-defined eye clearing out.

Teddy is centered over 1,000 miles from Bermuda, but is yet another threat to the islands early next week.

This past Monday morning, Hurricane Paulette didn't simply strike Bermuda at Category 1 intensity – its large 35- to 40-mile-wide eye engulfed the entire 20-square-mile group of islands about 650 miles east of Hatteras, North Carolina.

Teddy is expected to continue strengthen but is expected to encounter some increase in wind shear and also the cooler water churned up in the wake of Paulette. However, Teddy is currently forecast to track near Bermuda early next week, likely still as a hurricane.

Given the average uncertainty in forecast tracks of National Hurricane Center forecasts of about 150 miles four days out, it's too soon to determine the potential impacts, but all interests in Bermuda should monitor the forecast closely and prepare for the potential of another hurricane strike.

(MORE: What the Forecast Cone Means)

Current Information and Projected Path

(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)

What are the odds of back-to-back strikes on such a tiny part of the Atlantic Ocean? It's happened only once before in Bermuda.

In mid-October 2014, Hurricane Fay was unexpectedly damaging in Bermuda on Oct. 12, followed six days later by Hurricane Gonzalo, which was Bermuda's strongest and most damaging hurricane ($200 million to $400 million in damage) since Fabian in 2003.

Prior to Paulette this year, only eight hurricanes had passed close enough to strike Bermuda since 1970, according to NOAA's historical database.

Atlantic Canada, New England Concern?

Bermuda may not be the final chapter of Teddy.

As with all hurricanes, upper-level winds hold the key to where Teddy will track.

Increasingly, it appears the combination of an area of high pressure aloft over the central Atlantic and a sharp southward plunge of the jet stream over the Northeast U.S. this weekend won't allow Teddy to take a more typical sharp northeastward "recurve" into the open Atlantic Ocean.

It's far too soon to determine Teddy's eventual path next week, but there are a few scenarios.

1. Teddy is diverted far enough north to bring significant impacts to at least parts of the Canadian Maritimes, particularly Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. (Chance: Moderate)

2. The upper trough digs south strongly enough to slingshot Teddy toward the northwest, potentially bringing it closer to parts of coastal New England. (Chance: Low)

3. Teddy remains well east of New England, and just far enough offshore to simply graze parts of coastal Nova Scotia and Newfoundland (Chance: Low)

The potential steering winds for Teddy

Furthermore, Teddy is likely to remain quite strong relatively far north, as it gets a boost from the jet-stream plunge to its west and combines with a cold front diving south off the Eastern Seaboard.

Typical of tropical cyclones, Teddy's wind field is also expected to expand the farther north it tracks. This means even if Teddy steers well clear of the U.S., Teddy and the diving cold front will be a major wave generator for the Eastern Seaboard, from the east coast of Florida to Maine beginning as soon as this weekend.

The National Weather Service is already forecasting at least minor coastal flooding at high tide this weekend from New Jersey to North Carolina.

For now, interests in Atlantic Canada and New England should monitor the forecast for Teddy and have their hurricane plans ready in case the storm becomes a threat.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

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