MK Bhadrakumar
Former Ambassador
Last week witnessed India’s first ‘formal’ contact with the Taliban leadership. The Taliban side sought the meeting, which took place in the Indian compound in Doha, while the announcement of the event came from Delhi — a political message in itself. The Taliban is casting its net wide in the East and West. It is manifestly eager to have diverse relationships based on mutual interests. The government’s decision to engage with the Taliban signifies a return to India’s traditional Afghan policy with accent on the southern Pashtun region. Whereas, the non-Pashtun tribes have begun looking for ‘strategic depth’ in the neighbouring regions to the north and west of Afghanistan.
Nothing brings this home more poignantly than the decree signed by Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon to posthumously honour two of the tallest political figures of Northern Afghanistan — Ahmad Shah Massoud and Burhanuddin Rabbani — with the country's highest distinction, the Order of Ismoili Somoni. They are being recognised for their contribution to ending the brutal Tajik civil war (1993-1997), which was a cataclysmic event that ended in Moscow-backed Rahmon subduing an armed Islamist opposition. Tajiks act with subtlety native to Persian culture and Rahmon’s decree invokes memories of Dushanbe’s commitment to ethnic Tajiks in Afghanistan in the 1990s whom Moscow regarded as buffer between the CIS borders and advancing Taliban.
Rahmon most certainly consulted the Kremlin. The Iranian media last week cited reports of arms and ammunition from Tajikistan reaching Panjshir. Russia’s stance is shifting and is one of strategic ambivalence toward current events in Afghanistan. On Friday, President Putin introduced caveats to Taliban’s behaviour as conditions for Moscow according recognition of their government. Putin said all ethnic groups must be represented in the government; Taliban should join ‘the family of civilised peoples’ and must observe ‘civilised rules’; the transition must be legal. A certain distancing from the Taliban is discernible.
Significantly, in an interview with Kommersant newspaper, Nikolay Bordyuzha, Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), has spoken about the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan posing a threat to Russia. He said the CSTO might get involved in the event of a threat of armed conflict with a member state (eg Tajikistan). He underscored that Russia should not hurry to recognise the Taliban government and would see how the situation develops. The general speaks for the Kremlin.
Significantly, Putin also spoke about the spectre of Afghanistan’s disintegration. Could that be an implicit warning? On Friday, foreign minister Lavrov also waded into the sensitive nationality question, saying that any ‘political settlement should inevitably include a compromise between the Pashtuns that are mostly represented by the Taliban and also other Pashtuns, as well as Tajiks, Uzbeks and Khazareans (Hazaras) who should also participate in this process.’
Lavrov claimed Moscow is making ‘the most active efforts’ to facilitate dialogue between the Afghan ‘ethno-confessional groups.’ The Russian interference follows the aggressive stance taken by the US that it will continue to intervene militarily in Afghanistan in terms of its counter-terrorism strategy. Suffice to say, outside interference is escalating and a new dialectics is developing. Indeed, the British foreign secretary travelled to Islamabad. The intensifying contacts between the West and the Taliban will alienate Moscow whose conciliatory ‘Troika Plus’ initiative (Russia-US-China plus Pakistan) lies moribund.
Delhi must make a careful note of these strong geopolitical undercurrents. A convergence between the Indian position and of the US or Russia is difficult to achieve. What US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last Monday should hold good for Delhi, too — ‘Going forward, any engagement with a Taliban-led government in Kabul will be driven by one thing only: our vital national interests.’
Meanwhile, the European Union is conjuring up an innovative idea of having an ‘operational engagement’ with the Taliban government. The EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said ‘operational engagement will increase depending on the behaviour of this government.’ He listed five ‘benchmarks’ as basis for the EU engagement — new authorities’ fight against terrorism, human rights observance (especially women’s), creation of transitional government, humanitarian access and guarantees for those wishing to leave Afghanistan.
Notably, Borrell said the EU could bring back its diplomatic mission to Kabul to engage in dialogue and track the implementation of these benchmarks if there were suitable security conditions. India would have broad empathy and even find common ground with the EU approach. We have specific interests in Afghanistan — principally, to thwart the use of Afghan territory by inimical forces to stage terrorist activities directed against India. In the late 1990s, the Taliban reacted to our alliance with the Northern Alliance. But such anti-Taliban tilt is unrealistic and unnecessary on India’s part today.
Our conversation with top Taliban leadership must be carried forward and we should inject transparency into it with a sense of urgency so as to understand each other’s intentions and expectations and a matrix evolves thereof. In immediate terms, humanitarian concerns are acute and India must send relief supplies as soon as Kabul Airport becomes operational.
The leap of faith to engage with the Taliban will stand out in the chronicle of India’s diplomatic history as one of our finest hours. PM Modi has taken a bold decision. The prospects are hopeful for India to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in Afghanistan. Thanks to the regime change in Kabul, the bitterly fought turf war with Pakistan has met with sudden death. An existential discord may have resolved itself — gratuitous remains of the day! But it remains an inchoate outcome.
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On course in Afghanistan - The Tribune India
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