Disturbance near Bermuda may become Atlantic's next tropical depression or storm this weekend - Yahoo News

An area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda was ramping up to Tropical Depression Five at midday Saturday and has potential to become the next tropical storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season this weekend.

If Tropical Depression Five's winds reach 39 mph or greater, it would gather the name Tropical Storm Edouard. If Edouard forms this weekend it would be the earliest fifth named storm on record since the satellite era of the 1960s and 1970s.

This image, taken early Saturday morning, July 4, 2020, shows a batch of showers and thunderstorms near the center and is associated with the disturbance being monitored for development. (NOAA/GOES-East)

"The area being monitored for development is moving toward the east-northeast around 15 mph, which would bring locally drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms to Bermuda starting late Saturday night and lasting through much of Sunday," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller.

Other than a brief period of downpours and rough seas and surf, the impact on Bermuda will be minimal even if a tropical storm takes shape. Bermuda relies largely on rainwater for drinking and watering purposes so such a storm would also have some benefits. An inch or two of rain is possible from the system as it moves through the islands on Sunday.

"The feature is not a threat to the U.S. and Canada as steering winds will take the feature away from North America," Miller said.

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The disturbance has arisen in a broad area of lower atmospheric pressure, moisture and low wind shear relative to much of the Atlantic basin and has caught AccuWeather meteorologists' eyes in the past couple of weeks.

Wind shear is the change in the flow of air at different layers of the atmosphere and over the horizontal area just above the sea surface. Strong wind shear can lead to the demise of established hurricanes and tropical storms and prevent the development of tropical systems in general.

Large tracts of dry air, dust and wind shear have been present over much of the tropical Atlantic basin in recent weeks and are likely to continue through much of July. But, this area along and just off the southeastern coast of the United States is a patch where there is some moisture and somewhat lower wind shear.

This image taken on Saturday, July 4, 2020, shows large areas of Saharan Desert dust and dry air as yellow, orange and red colors. (NOAA/GOES-East)

Through Sunday, the feature will continue to move over warm water with low wind shear and a moist atmosphere which could aid in the development and moderate strengthening.

"Beyond Sunday, the feature will move into a zone of cooler water, drier air and increasing wind shear northeast of Bermuda, which may prevent development or cause the system to weaken or not gain any more strength," Miller said.

The same general area along and off the Southeast U.S. coast, which includes the northern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic waters could allow a similar feature or two to crop up through mid-July.

The earliest fifth-named tropical storm on record since the satellite era of the 1960s and 1970s is Emily from the blockbuster 2005 hurricane season. Emily became a named storm on July 12 and went on to become a powerful and deadly Category 5 hurricane that tracked through the Caribbean.

The 2005 season brought a record number of tropical cyclones, 31, with 27 named tropical storms and 15 hurricanes. Seven of the storms strengthened into major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind scale.

Category 3 storms produce maximum sustained winds of 111 mph and up to 129 mph (Category 4 storms have wind speeds of 130-156 mph, and Category 5 storms have wind speeds of 157 mph or higher).

The next names on the list for the 2020 Atlantic season are Fay, Gonzalo and Hanna.

The earliest sixth-named tropical storm on record in the Atlantic is Franklin, which also came to life during the 2005 season. Franklin formed on July 21, near the central Bahamas, and traveled northeastward, well to the east of the U.S. coast. Franklin did not reach hurricane strength.

Should none of the aforementioned features bud into a tropical system, it is not uncommon for there to be a lull in tropical activity during July and early August after an active spring.

This is due to the usual presence of dry air, dust and wind shear over the equatorial part of the Atlantic basin and a lack of non-tropical systems dipping southward from North America which could evolve into a tropical system.

Conditions typically ramp up during late August and September as the strength of disturbances moving westward off Africa, called tropical waves, tends to peak, combined with water temperatures climbing to peak values for the year.

AccuWeather is projecting a busy season ahead with 14-20 named tropical storms with seven to 11 hurricanes and four to six major hurricanes. Four tropical storms are already in the books for the season, with one U.S. landfall.

Cristobal became the earliest "C" named storm in recorded history for the Atlantic on June 2, a feat that typically does not occur until around the middle of August. The storm went on to crash ashore along the U.S. Gulf Coast, where it unleashed flooding. Dolly was the second-earliest "D" named storm ever in the basin, but it moved out to sea without impacting land.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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