Happy Tuesday, everybody. I hope you haven't been eaten alive by The Super League yet. I know I shared some of my feelings about it yesterday, and while I'm not going to go further in-depth on it here -- though if you want the latest details, read this -- I couldn't help but think of it while preparing for this newsletter.
I know that for American sports fans, the uproar over the Super League can be confusing. We've grown up in a country where sports have always been a controlled, closed environment, and we're used to the naked greed of it all. European sports are a bit different and are becoming more "American-ized." Whether that's good or bad, I don't know, nor will I pretend to, but I couldn't help but laugh while looking for picks for tonight.
You see, the NBA is becoming impossible to bet this year, at least when you need to find good picks for your readers hours before tip-off. It's because of surprise announcements of players sitting out due to rest or minor injuries. Sometimes it's because a team wants to rest a superstar for the playoffs, and sometimes it's because winning isn't in the team's best interest.
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Now, think about that last part. As Americans, we've accepted teams not trying to compete in the short-term as a long-term strategy, even though it goes against what the soul of sport is supposed to be: competition. There are no real ramifications for losing in American sports leagues because you're still getting your television money at the end of the season, and you don't get kicked out of the league.
That's not how European soccer leagues have worked, but that's what the Super League is trying to create. A league in which it doesn't matter how you compete, you'll make money anyway. It's profit over competition. In America, we've been conditioned to this reality, and many sports fans still fight against it. It seems Europe might be going through the same process, but many there are fighting like hell to stop it.
Now let's pick some winners.
All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Mets at Cubs, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-110): As I've mentioned many times when it comes to betting on baseball, stadiums have a more significant impact on games in this sport than any other. Wrigley Field is not only one of the oldest and historic stadiums in the country, but it's one that plays very differently depending on weather conditions and time of day. Sometimes Wrigley Field can feel like a Little League field, where every pop-up has a legitimate shot to soar 450 feet out onto a neighborhood street. Other nights you could shoot the ball out of a cannon, and it might get out of the infield. Tonight's forecast is calling for the latter scenario.
Temperatures will be in the upper-30s with a stiff breeze blowing in from Lake Michigan, and when winds come in off the lake, they're blowing in from center. That tends to keep fly balls from traveling very far. Plus, as if the weather isn't enough, we have two offenses that have struggled against right-handed pitching, and both starters tonight are righties. The Cubs have a wOBA of .279 and a wRC+ of 74, which rank 27th and 28th in MLB, respectively. The Mets are better overall, ranking ninth in both wOBA and wRC+, but their overall home run rate of 1.57% against righties ranks 29th in baseball. Only Miami ranks lower.
Oh, and those two starters I mentioned? Well, while neither Jake Arrieta nor Taijuan Walker have elite strikeout rates, both do a good job of limiting fly balls and home runs overall. All of which means that, like the few fans in the seats, the bats will be cold tonight.
Key Trend: The Under is 9-3 in the last 12 Cubs home games
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine expert Matt Severance has gone 10-4 in his last 14 MLB picks, and he has a play on the spread in this game.
💰 The Picks
⚾ MLB
Orioles at Marlins, 6:40 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Marlins (-121) -- Last week I told you to fade Orioles starter Matt Harvey because he's bad and has been bad for a while. Unfortunately, the game that night was postponed. However, if you remembered that Matt Harvey was bad and bet against him the next day in the make-up game, you won! Well, guess who's back on the mound tonight? That's right! It's Matt Harvey, and we're betting against him one more time!
Now, this isn't the same exact scenario as last week. For one, the Orioles and Harvey were favorites last week against a Seattle team they shouldn't have been favored against. Tonight they're underdogs on the road against the Marlins, but like the Mariners were better than Baltimore, so are the Marlins, and the Marlins win this game often enough to justify laying this price.
Key Trend: Matt Harvey's team is 33-49 in his 82 starts since the 2016 season.
🏀 NBA
Timberwolves at Kings, 10 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass
The Pick: Timberwolves +3.5 (-110) -- It's time to rely on a steady principle with how difficult it is to find NBA games to bet on these days and a limited slate for tonight. In this letter, we bet against teams that aren't good enough to be favored! Granted, the Kings are better than Minnesota because everybody is better than Minnesota. It has the worst record in the league. Still, the crux of the principle is that the difference between a 23-34 team and a 15-43 team isn't much, particularly when the 23-34 team is worse defensively.
Also, as a method to support our principle, I'll point out that the Kings are only 7-12 ATS this season when favored. Their 36.8% cover rate as favorites ranks 27th in the league, with only New Orleans, Cleveland and Houston being worse. And what do those three all have in common with the Kings? That's right! None are good enough to deserve being favored over anybody!
Key Trend: The Kings are 7-12 ATS as favorites this season.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Jody Demling has hit the Derby-Oaks double nine times in the last 12 years and just locked in his Kentucky Derby picks.
💸 The DFS Rundown
Building Blocks
PG: Kyrie Irving, Nets
SG: CJ McCollum, Blazers
SF: Norman Powell, Blazers
PF: Julius Randle, Knicks
C: Karl-Anthony Towns, Wolves
Value Plays
PG: Cole Anthony, Magic
SG: Bruce Brown, Nets
SF: Joe Harris, Nets
PF: Chuma Okeke, Magic
C: Enes Kanter, Blazers
Full lineup advice
Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here.
⚾ Dinger Props
We're betting on each of these three hitters to hit a home run tonight.
- Bryce Harper +250
- Rhys Hoskins +275
- Juan Soto +300
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April 21, 2021 at 03:10AM
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It's going to be tough for the Cubs and Mets to score at Wrigley Field, other best bets for Tuesday - CBS Sports
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