Analysis: Previous Indianapolis oval winners’ chances on the road-course layout - NASCAR

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Of the 40 drivers entered into Sunday’s race, only four have previously won at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in the NASCAR Cup Series.

But there’s a catch.

These four drivers won on the historic 2.5-mile oval, and for the first time in NASCAR history, the Cup Series will compete on Indy’s 14-turn, 2.439-mile road-course layout. Only two of those four have won a road-course event in their careers, and none have this season in the five opportunities already presented.

INDY ROAD COURSE: Weekend schedule | Betting odds | Paint schemes

For starters, the four former Indianapolis winners are Kevin Harvick (2003 and 2019-20), Kyle Busch (2015-16), Brad Keselowski (2019) and Ryan Newman (2013). The two road winners are Harvick (twice) and Busch (four times).

Here’s how they have all fared on the 2021 road courses so far:

	DAYTONA RC	COTA	SONOMA	ROAD AMERICA	WATKINS GLEN
HARVICK	6th	37th	22nd	27th	8th
BUSCH	35th	10th	5th	3rd	4th
KESELOWSKI	5th	19th	15th	13th	35th
NEWMAN	20th	24th	33rd	32nd	25th

Green: best finish among the four; Red: worst finish among the four.

Busch has the best average finish out of those five races – 11.4 (that ranks sixth among all active drivers). Keselowski then follows with a 17.4 average (17th best overall). Harvick just makes the top 20 average marks with 20.0 on the dot (20th overall). Newman has struggled the most, averaging 26.8 (32nd).

The order of the averages make sense, too, considering Busch had the best finish among the four drivers in four of the five events. Keselowski had one best. Harvick and Newman never did, and Newman had two of the worst finishes as opposed to Harvick’s one.

BetMGM’s odds slightly change the ranking order. Of the four, Busch is favored most at 10-1 (fourth best overall). Harvick is then second at 25-1 (tied for ninth), followed by Keselowski at 40-1 (15th)– so those two are switched. Newman still falls in last at 300-1 (tied for 29th).

So, if a previous Indianapolis oval winner is going to also win on the road course, it’s looking like Busch has the best chance.

The inaugural race – the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard – is set for Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on NBC/NBC Sports App, IMS Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. It’s one of the final three races in the regular season.

Busch and Keselowski already qualified for the 2021 NASCAR Playoffs by virtue of at least one win (Busch has two). Harvick is a part of the postseason picture right now – 95 points above the cutline – but he’s not guaranteed a berth just yet. Newman – 264 points out – would definitely need a win to advance.

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Analysis: Previous Indianapolis oval winners’ chances on the road-course layout - NASCAR
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