Bears vs. Packers Pick, Score Prediction: Keeping It Simple - bleachernation.com

Things can’t get any worse, right? That’s the optimistic outlook for the Bears ahead a Sunday Night Football showdown that seemingly has all the makings of a Packers rout. The Bears will turn to Mitchell Trubisky, who replaces the injured Nick Foles, with the hope that their Week 1 starter can inject some life into a stagnant offense. That may be wishful thinking given Foles supplanted a struggling Trubisky back in Week 3, but again, things can’t get any worse.

Right?

Can Chicago snap its four-game losing streak and keep its fading postseason hopes alive, or will Green Bay rebound from a brutal overtime loss at Indy a week ago to tighten its grip on the NFC North crown? Let’s get into it with our Bears vs. Packers picks and predictions for this Week 12 Sunday night matchup.

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Bears vs. Packers Odds

Unsurprisingly, Green Bay enters this matchup has a heavy favorite. Quite simply, nobody wants to bet on the Bears, and it’s not hard to see why. Aaron Rodgers leads an explosive Packers offense, while the Bears have failed to reach 20 points in three of their last four games. Bettors like offense, and they most certainly like to back superior quarterbacks.

For weeks, oddsmakers at top apps including DraftKings Sportsbook have demonstrated a lack of belief in the Bears, and nothing is different ahead of this matchup. A look at the current Bears-Packers odds on the Illinois market:

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Bears	+9 (-110)	+40	44 (-110)
Packers	-9 (-110)	-400	44 (-110)

Earlier in the week, the Packers were favored by 7.5 points, but heavy Green Bay betting action has pushed the number up. Meanwhile, the total has dropped from 45.5. points down to 44.

Bettors looking for a reason, any reason, to back the Bears can use the desperation angle.

With Chicago’s 5-1 start now a distant memory, Chicago’s playoff aspirations are on life support. A look at the Bears’ division odds reveals a dire situation. Green Bay enters this game -1000 to win the NFC North, while Chicago is +700.

If the Bears have any designs of making a December run, a turnaround must start tonight.

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Bears vs. Vikings Betting Pick, Prediction

Let’s jump into our Bears vs. Packers betting picks and score prediction for Week 12.

Look, it’s not all bad for the Bears here. David Montgomery is back, Green Bay allows 4.4 yards per carry, and Allen Robinson averaged 113.5 yards in two games against the Packers last season. Sure, Montgomery and the Bears have struggled to get things going on the ground, but if there were ever a week to get going, it’s this one.

Generally speaking, “things can’t be much worse” isn’t exactly a rallying cry, but it’s true. While Trubisky is both erratic and turnover prone, he also possesses the athleticism and playmaking ability this team sorely needs.

Injury Outlook

The Bears are dealing with a pair of key injuries. Defensive tackle Akiem Hicks (26 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and left tackle Charles Leno Jr. are both game time decisions.

Meanwhile, the Packers list six players as questionable, including corner Kevin King and wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but they are expected to suit up.

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Bears vs. Packers Betting Trends

Green Bay has utterly dominated the head-to-head series as the Packers have won 17 of the last 20 meetings between these two teams. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Chicago has struggled to cover the number at Lambeau in recent years. The Bears are just 5-14 ATS over their last 19 trips to Green Bay.

That being said, it’s worth noting that big home favorites in late-season division contests typically don’t fare well.

In fact, dating back to 2003, home favorites of 8 to 9.5 points that are playing at least their tenth game are just 19-34 ATS in division contests.

But don’t crack open the champagne just yet.

Green Bay should feel good about a primetime trend in play this week. Since ’03, home favorites of 8 to 9 points are 6-1 ATS in primetime division contests. It’s also worth noting that the Packers are 6-2 ATS in Aaron Rodgers home starts as a favorite of 8 to 9 points.

Bears-Packers Total

The under has cashed in 7 of the Bears’ 10 games this season. The over has hit in 6 of the Packers’ 10 contests.

Generally speaking, the under is the right side in late-season division contests.

In Week 12 or later, the under is 353-292-15 (54.7%) in division games. When the total closes between 44 and 45 points, the under is 44-35-2 in such games.

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Bears vs. Packers Prediction

I like to bet against the public, and I really like to bet against the public in primetime games. The public is decidedly on the Packers in this one, and yet, I’m going to roll with them.

Quite simply, I’m not sure that Chicago is capable of exploiting Green Bay’s weaknesses. It’s great that David Montgomery is back, but the Bears haven’t been able to run the football at all this season, even when they’ve gone up against mediocre front sevens. There’s no real reason to believe that trend suddenly changes tonight.

Maybe you can imagine a scenario in which Mitchell Trubisky’s return sparks an offense averaging less than 20 points per game this season. I can’t. Maybe Trubisky makes a play or two, but he’s going to make a couple crucial mistakes that help the Packers run away late.

The Bears’ defense is legit, and 8-9 points is a substantial spread, but I’m not overthinking this. I’m taking the better quarterback and the better team–one coming off of a brutal loss–to bounce back tonight.