Vikings vs. Packers Score Prediction: Who Wins the NFC North Rivalry Game in Minneapolis? - Sports Illustrated

The 8-2 Green Bay Packers are coming to Minneapolis this weekend and will provide the 4-5 Vikings with a big-time opportunity to prove themselves as a team worthy of being taken seriously in the NFC.

There are plenty of reasons to believe the Vikings are better than their record indicates. They're the only team in the NFL to lead by seven points or more in every single game this season, but a conservative approach and self-inflicted wounds have caused them to stumble repeatedly in close games. Minnesota and Green Bay each have 6.4 "expected wins" according to Football Outsiders, as the Packers are 3-0 in games decided by four points or fewer and the Vikings are 1-4. The Vikings actually rank ahead of the Packers in DVOA and have the benefit of being at home this weekend.

This projects as a close game, which is no surprise considering eight of the Vikings' nine games have been decided by one score. The Packers opened as 2.5-point road favorites, but that number has fallen to a single point throughout the week. 

Both teams are missing key players, but the Vikings are clearly the healthier of the two. They're without Danielle Hunter, Michael Pierce, and Irv Smith Jr., and the statuses of Patrick Peterson and Bashaud Breeland are up in the air. The Packers are missing Aaron Jones, David Bakhtiari, Za'Darius Smith, Jaire Alexander, Whitney Mercilus, Robert Tonyan, Allen Lazard, and potentially Rashan Gary as well.

Even without several starters, the Packers have the more potent offense in this matchup. Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and A.J. Dillon should give Mike Zimmer and the Vikings problems. But the Vikings' defense has been quite good this year, particularly through the air, so it'll be strength vs. strength when Green Bay has the ball. The key for Minnesota will be slowing down Dillon and getting pressure on Rodgers with Everson Griffen, D.J. Wonnum, and the rest of their defensive line. Peterson and Breeland getting cleared to play would be another big boost to a secondary that is getting Harrison Smith back. Still, if Rodgers has all day to find Adams downfield, it'll be a long afternoon for Minnesota.

Offensively, the Vikings will look to get Dalvin Cook going. They've surprisingly had one of the least efficient running games in the league this season, but the Packers' run defense isn't great and Cook racked up six touchdowns in two games against them last season. They'll also look to stay aggressive through the air, with Kirk Cousins looking for Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen for explosive plays. The Packers' pass defense has mostly been excellent even without players like Alexander, so it won't be an easy task.

So who wins?

My score prediction is Packers 27, Vikings 24. I'm tempted to pick the Vikings, but I just can't pull the trigger. The Packers are 34-7 when Rodgers plays during the Matt LaFleur era, as they just seem to find ways to win games. I anticipate Dillon and Adams having big days, and I'm not totally convinced that Cousins won't revert to his conservative, checkdown-happy self despite last week's aggressiveness. This should be a thrilling game that comes down to the wire, but I trust the Packers (and Mason Crosby) more than I trust the Vikings to get it done at the end. With that said, a Vikings victory would not surprise me.

Thanks for reading. Make sure to bookmark this site and check back daily for the latest Vikings news and analysis all season long. Also, follow me on Twitter and feel free to ask me any questions on there.

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Vikings vs. Packers Score Prediction: Who Wins the NFC North Rivalry Game in Minneapolis? - Sports Illustrated
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