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YOUR MOVE, CONGRESS & WHITE HOUSE — D.C. will lift its mask mandate for most indoor settings starting Monday, Mayor MURIEL BOWSER announced this morning. WaPo’s Julie Zauzmer has the details
WHITE HOUSE VS. CBO — Biden world is bracing for the Build Back Better package (BBB) to receive a bad score from the Congressional Budget Office this week, especially when it comes to CBO’s estimate of how much money can be raised from the Dem plan to beef up IRS enforcement, a crucial pay-for in the reconciliation bill.
Some Democrats have PTSD about how the CBO scores routinely hit draft Obamacare bills like asteroids back in 2009, knocking negotiations off course. BARACK OBAMA became so angry at the budget office that he once banned mention of it in his presence, instead calling it “banana.”
Minutes ago, ANDREW BATES, in his first gaggle as White House deputy press secretary, continued the Biden administration’s expectations-setting about what the CBO will say, and directly challenged CBO’s expertise.
“There has been wide agreement on the part of everyone involved, moderates, liberals, etc., that CBO does not have experience analyzing revenue amounts gained from cracking down on wealthy tax cheats who are taking advantage of every honest taxpayer,” Bates said.
How worried is the White House about the coming CBO score? Bates name-checked LARRY SUMMERS to make his case.
“There’s a huge body of work,” Bates said, “from economic experts — including Republican former Treasury secretaries, IRS commissioners who have served under presidents of both parties, as well as Larry Summers, with whom we have sometimes had important differences — affirming that, if anything, our estimates lowball how much revenue can be brought in by cracking down on rich tax cheats.”
In what sounded like a classic example of a spokesperson protesting a tad too much, Bates concluded, “This is something that has been known for months and everyone is on the same page.”
We’ll see!
Good Tuesday afternoon.
(IR)RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES
TIMING IN THE HOUSE — House Majority Leader STENY HOYER said Democrats are still on track to pass BBB by the end of the week, though it could slip into Saturday, per Sarah Ferris and Anthony Adragna in Congress Minutes. Debate on the bill could take place Wednesday.
TIMING IN THE SENATE — Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER said BBB will be on the Senate floor before Christmas. Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) then quickly told reporters he has “a lot of concerns” with that time frame.
— And here’s a cold dose of reality from Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.) on what the timing could look like in the upper chamber, via Anthony at Congress Minutes:
Reporter: “What are you expecting for the end-of-year schedule? When do you do [Build Back Better]? When do you get out for the year?”
Tester: “New Year’s Eve. Do you have plans for Christmas? You can spend it at my house, because my plans are screwed up too. I think it’s going to be very late into December by the time we get everything done.”
MANCHIN IN THE MIDDLE — One of the West Virginia Democrat’s top concerns: inflation. Today, Manchin told CNN’s Manu Raju that voters back home are very worried about it, and he’s not convinced the reconciliation bill would help ease it: “Inflation has hit them extremely hard. … I hear it when I go to the grocery store. … They say, ‘Are you as mad as I am?’ And I say, ‘Absolutely.’”
MOVEMENT ON THE FLOOR? — Schumer said the Senate could start voting on the NDAA as early as today if Republicans agree — “a big if,” notes Connor O’Brien.
— The NDAA includes long-gestating legislation to beef up cyberattack reporting requirements — “the most sweeping cyber regulation ever imposed on the private sector,” Betsy Woodruff Swan and Eric Geller write. But now it faces a new obstacle, they report: The FBI is concerned the bill would elbow out the agency in favor of DHS, and the Biden administration is pushing for the language to be altered so they both receive the cyber reports.
NOT BUSY ENOUGH FOR YOU? — Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN warned in a new interview with NPR that Treasury could run out of cash — and require another lifting of the debt ceiling — shortly after Dec. 3, per Bloomberg.
— Senate Budget Chair BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) today didn’t rule out using reconciliation to raise the debt limit, saying they’d consider all options.
CONGRESS
GOP TRIES TO CONTAIN GOSAR FALLOUT — House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY today told his conference to stay united against a possible Democratic effort to censure Rep. PAUL GOSAR (R-Ariz.) for tweeting an anime video showing him killing Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) and attacking Biden. Gosar won’t face consequences from his party. Gosar apologized and said he hadn’t seen the video before it was posted. McCarthy added that he “cannot accept any action or showing of violence to another member.”
— Meanwhile, as some in the party take aim at those Republicans who supported the bipartisan infrastructure bill, McCarthy basically said “now is not the time,” per Olivia Beavers.
TIP OF THE SPEIER — Rep. JACKIE SPEIER (D-Calif.) announced today that she won’t seek reelection in 2022. Her Bay Area district should remain a safe Democratic seat. An ally of Speaker NANCY PELOSI, Speier has been known for her work on sexual assault/harassment, women’s equality and national security. She began her announcement video by referencing her wild start in politics at the Jonestown massacre: “Forty-three years ago this week, I was lying on an airstrip in the jungles of Guyana with five bullet holes in my body. I vowed that if I survived, I would dedicate my life to public service. I lived, and I served.” More from the S.F. Chronicle… From the archives: Speier writes about Jonestown for POLITICO Mag
THE ECONOMY
The U.S. got a few glimmers of positive economic news this morning — possible early signs of reprieve for a Biden administration that has been battered lately by inflation- and pandemic-fueled concerns.
— Retail sales in October jumped up 1.7% over September — ahead of expectations and greater than the monthly inflation rate of 0.9%, per new Commerce Department data. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales are up 16.3% — an indicator that consumer behavior remains strong even as inflation worries grow, and that people “are willing to pay the higher prices,” writes CNBC’s Jeff Cox. (OTOH: WSJ’s Julia Carpenter warns that Americans may be in denial about inflation after not having dealt with it for decades.)
— Oil supplies are catching up to demand, offering some hope that the increase in prices will ease soon. But supply remains just one piece of the price puzzle, notes NYT’s Stanley Reed.
— Home-builder confidence increased for the third straight month, indicating that the housing market remains robust on the back of strong demand, despite supply-chain issues. More from MarketWatch
— BUT, BUT, BUT: One new tranche of data indicated that inflation could stay elevated for a while: Import prices surged 1.2% in October, triple September’s rate and faster than economists expected. More from Reuters
BANNON CHRONICLES
The criminal indictment of STEVE BANNON for contempt of Congress had Trumpist Republicans on the Hill eager to give the Biden administration similar treatment if they take back the House next year. But that won’t be easy, report Kyle Cheney, Betsy Woodruff Swan, Olivia Beavers and Nicholas Wu: “[T]he Bannon indictment stands apart from nearly any other contempt of Congress charge in memory,” and even if Biden aides refused to testify, the president could invoke executive privilege. Still, the seething GOP sees the Jan. 6 committee’s moves as oversight precedent for 2023 and beyond.
POLITICS ROUNDUP
POLL OF THE DAY — By a roughly 2-to-1 margin, Americans both (1) want the Supreme Court to leave Roe v. Wade in place and (2) oppose Texas’ new near-total abortion ban, per a new WaPo-ABC poll. In general, “three-quarters of Americans say abortion access should be left to women and their doctors, while 20 percent say they should be regulated by law.” While Democrats are fairly united in support of Roe, Republicans are split nearly evenly on the question of whether to overturn it.
2022 WATCH — New York City Public Advocate JUMAANE WILLIAMS officially jumped into the governor’s race this morning, positioning himself as a progressive champion in what’s shaping up to be a very crowded field. More from the N.Y. Daily News … Launch video highlighting his Tourette’s
INFRASTRUCTURE YEAR
THE DEM SALES PITCH — DCCC Chair SEAN PATRICK MALONEY (D-N.Y.) said today that Democrats are planning a 1,000-event push to tell the American people what they’ve accomplished, per Nicholas Wu.
THE BUCK STOPS THERE — The Biden administration has talked a lot about achieving racial equity in its new infrastructure package and avoiding repeating the mistakes of the past. But most of the decision-making will ultimately be up to the states, which will vary widely in how much they emphasize those priorities, report NYT’s Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Madeleine Ngo. DOT is talking to local governments about this, though, and will take racial equity and environmental factors into account as it disburses discretionary funding.
FOR PETE’S SAKE — The bipartisan infrastructure law’s massive infusion of cash has handed PETE BUTTIGIEG a spotlight and level of power rare for a Transportation secretary. It’s also handed Republicans who want to kneecap Buttigieg’s political ambitions a new opportunity to hunt for waste and abuse, reports Tanya Snyder. As his department’s budget grows by $50 billion, Buttigieg could “make the next few years a nonstop campaign tour through the country, listening to people’s problems — and helping fix them, all of which could improve his political fortunes immensely. But that attention can be a double-edged sword.”
POLICY CORNER
PROS AND KHANS — FTC Chair LINA KHAN’s hard-charging ambitions have injected the commission with a burst of anti-monopolist energy. But it’s not just Republican commissioners who are unhappy: Career FTC staff, too, “have felt like an afterthought in her agenda … have felt excluded from deliberations and believe their views aren’t valued,” reports WSJ’s Brent Kendall.
AT THE BORDER — DHS’ inspector general will not review the conduct of border agents on horseback whose clash with Haitian migrants in September provoked widespread controversy, the department said today. There is a separate investigation ongoing at the agency. More from USA Today
THE PANDEMIC
Pfizer announced today that it’s struck a deal covering 95 countries for its Covid-19 treatment pill to be manufactured and sold cheaply around the world. The move follows a similar deal from Merck for its pill, and could help improve health outcomes in poor countries that have struggled for access to vaccines and treatments during the pandemic. But the deal doesn’t cover some notable countries, including Brazil, Iraq, Jamaica and Russia. More from The Hill
AMERICA AND THE WORLD
SPORTS BLINK — WaPo’s Josh Rogin reports that the Biden administration is planning to announce this month a diplomatic boycott of next year’s Olympics in Beijing — a snub over China’s human rights record that will nonetheless let American athletes compete.
PULLOUT FALLOUT — ZALMAY KHALILZAD, U.S. envoy for Afghanistan under DONALD TRUMP and Biden, is on a media tour to defend his efforts and push the Biden administration to engage with the Taliban, reports NYT’s Michael Crowley. Critics pin some of the blame on the fall of Afghanistan on Khalilzad, while his supporters say he played the best he could with an impossible hand. The article also reveals for the first time (though without many details) an investigation into his workplace conduct at State during the Bush administration. (He denies any wrongdoing.)
MEDIAWATCH
BOOK CLUB — Excerpts from JONATHAN KARL’s new book, “Betrayal” ($28), have driven political headlines for weeks. But NYT’s Jennifer Szalai has an unfavorable review of the book out today, criticizing Karl as excessively establishmentarian and slow to take the Trump administration to task: “[F]or all the high-minded talk in his books about the journalistic pursuit of accuracy, he gives little indication that he had the imagination to handle the truth.”
— Meanwhile, the revelations keep coming. ABC’s Will Steakin reports today that the book shows Trump allies like MICHAEL FLYNN and SIDNEY POWELL trying to pressure the Pentagon’s EZRA COHEN to help overturn the 2020 election.
PLAYBOOKERS
Dan Sullivan briefly got trapped in a Senate subway car.
An unidentified senator couldn’t bring themself to spring for salad.
Max Scherzer is back in Washington (but not like that): He was on the Hill today.
SPOTTED at the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition’s virtual 2021 mid-Atlantic summit on foreign policy for America’s middle class Monday: President Joe Biden, Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), Wendy Sherman, Strive Masiyiwa, Daleep Singh, Gayle Smith, Jack Markell, Peter Roskam, Sarah Thorn, Andrea Wainer, Liz Schrayer and Andrea Mitchell.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Sarah Baker is now senior counsel to the general counsel at the Department of Transportation. She most recently was president and executive director of We The Action, and is an Obama White House alum.
TRANSITIONS — The House Select Committee on the Economy has added James Langnes as director of member services and Harry Fones as comms director. Langnes previously was press secretary for Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), who’s now ranking member. Fones previously was comms director for Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), and is a Trump DHS alum. … Woodberry Associates has added Kimberly Serota as health advocacy director and Andrew Roof as strategic comms manager. Serota previously was policy and advocacy director at the American Urological Association. Roof previously was at the South Carolina Commission on Higher Education.
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