The Kansas City Chiefs are set to play in their third consecutive AFC Championship Game. The Buffalo Bills are making their first appearance in the conference title game since the 1993 season. There's a bit of history here for both franchises, and this epic clash is going to send one of them to Super Bowl LV.
On its surface, Sunday's Bills-Chiefs matchup will be a duel between two young, up-and-coming quarterbacks. Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes has already won a league MVP award, while Buffalo's Josh Allen is firmly in the conversation this year. Mahomes is 25. Allen is just 24.
Anyone who watched the Chiefs outlast the Cleveland Browns in the divisional round knows that there's no guarantee that Mahomes will play. He suffered a concussion in that game and remains in the league's concussion protocol.
The good news for Chiefs fans is that Mahomes has made enough progress to return to practice on a limited basis.
"He's done well up to this point,'' Kansas City head coach Andy Reid said, per ESPN's Adam Teicher. "Today [Mahomes was allowed to do] limited work and no contact. That's kind of what we're doing on Wednesday, so this fits in well."
If Mahomes cannot play, the Chiefs will rely on backup Chad Henne.
Regardless of who is under center for Kansas City, this is going to be a battle between two of the league's most complete teams—and two squads with the goods to take home the Lombardi Trophy.
Which team has the best chance of coming out on top? Let's take a look.
2021 AFC Championship Game Info
Date: Sunday, January 24
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
TV and Live Stream: CBS, CBS All Access
Line: Kansas City -3
Over/Under*: 54
Prediction: Buffalo 28, Kansas City 27
Line via DraftKings Sportsbook.
While Mahomes has the most high-profile injury for this game, his isn't the only notable one. Chiefs running back Clyde-Edwards-Helaire remains limited with an ankle injury, Chiefs wideout Sammy Watkins has been limited with a calf injury, Bills wideout Stefon Diggs has been limited with an oblique injury and Bills linebacker Tremaine Edmunds has been limited by a hamstring injury.
While injuries alone probably won't decide this contest, defensive play might. Allen and Mahomes each helm a high-octane offense capable of moving the ball at will. Kansas City and Buffalo respectively rank first and second in total offense for the 2020 season.
Therefore, the team able to make the most big defensive plays or the most timely stops is going to have a huge advantage. For Buffalo, the goal will be to keep Kansas City out of the end zone more than it will be about shutting them down entirely.
"We're a bend-but-don't break defense," Bills safety Jordan Poyer said, per ESPN's Mike Reiss. "We're going to keep fighting for every grain of grass."
The key here—for both teams—will be putting offensive touchdowns on the board while limiting the opposition to field goals. This will be easier in theory than in practice, but Buffalo should have a chance to slow Mahomes and Co.
The Bills held the Baltimore Ravens to just three points in the divisional round and have restricted seven of their past eight opponents to 25 points.
The Chiefs have held their past three opponents below 25 points and are more than capable of making timely defensive plays. However, an inconsistent pass defense could be problematic against Buffalo's pass-oriented offense.
Kansas City ranks 18th in net passing yards allowed. If Allen can avoid turnovers—Kansas City ranks sixth in interceptions—he has the arm talent and the improvisational skills needed to take advantage.
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AFC Championship Game 2021: Winner, Score Predictions for Bills vs. Chiefs - Bleacher Report
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