Hurricane Lee Expected To Strengthen | Weather.com - The Weather Channel

• Lee has restrengthened into a major hurricane.
• It's too soon to tell what land areas this hurricane may threaten late this week or next weekend.
• Bermuda, Atlantic Canada and the Northeast U.S. should monitor the forecast closely.
• Dangerous high surf, rip currents and coastal flooding are likely along the East Coast this week.

Hurricane Lee will turn northward over the western Atlantic in the week ahead and interests in Bermuda, Atlantic Canada and the Northeast Seaboard should continue to monitor the forecast closely.

The hurricane will send dangerous high surf and rip currents to the U.S. East Coast regardless of where it tracks over the next several days.

Here's the latest status on Lee: Hurricane Lee is centered more than 200 miles north of the northern Leeward Islands, and is moving west-northwest.

Wind shear caused Lee to weaken significantly on Saturday from its maximum strength as a Category 5 late last week. Lee has now restrengthened back into a major hurricane as of late Sunday.

Enhanced Satellite

(The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the dark red and pink colors. Clustering, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone.)

H​ere's where Lee will go the next five days: Lee's center will continue to pass well north of the northern Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, over the next day or two.

A​fter that, the forecast becomes more uncertain and will depend on where Lee eventually makes a northward turn during the middle part of the week.

Lee is forecast to undergo some additional strengthening as the week begins. It should then weaken again by later this week when it turns northward since it will encounter somewhat cooler water temperatures, partly induced by upwelling from Hurricane Franklin and the remnants of Idalia.

(​MORE: 12 Things You May Not Know About Hurricane Forecasts)

Current Status And Forecast Path

(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)

The uncertain northward turn will determine impacts in Bermuda, Atlantic Canada and possibly the Northeast U.S.: Lee is being steered west-northwest by high pressure to its north right now. By midweek, a northward turn will be induced by a dip in the jet stream sweeping into the eastern U.S.

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E​xactly where this turn occurs and how the hurricane interacts with the jet stream dip are uncertain factors, which leads to a larger spread in computer model guidance during the latter half of the week.

Computer guidance is shown by the skinny gold (Euro) and white (GFS) lines.

For now, the trends in the ensemble computer model guidance over the last several days suggest the northward turn likely will not be sharp enough to avoid all land areas. The hurricane will also grow in size which means impacts could extend far from where its center tracks.

Bermuda and Atlantic Canada have the highest chance of seeing some rain and wind impacts late this week into next weekend. Since the track uncertainty remains high, there is also the possibility of rain and wind impacts along the Northeast U.S. coast as well. Interests in all of these areas should continue to monitor Lee's forecast closely.

As with most hurricanes, this forecast is subject to change. C​heck back with us at weather.com for the latest on this, and the 2023 hurricane season.

D​angerous surf, rip currents will occur: O​ne certainty with Lee's track, regardless of exactly where it goes, is that it will generate dangerous high surf, rip currents, coastal flooding, even beach erosion along the Eastern Seaboard much of this week. That's particularly the case from the Southeast U.S. to New England.

Given the storm's initial slow movement and increasing size, this coastal flooding will likely occur over multiple days and high tide cycles.

K​eep this in mind if you have plans if you live near or plan to head to the Atlantic beaches this week. Stay out of the water, especially if red flags are flying at the beach.

L​ee's History So Far

Lee became the 13th storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season Tuesday afternoon and the fourth hurricane of the season late Wednesday afternoon. That was over a week ahead of the average fourth hurricane pace of Sept. 16, according to National Hurricane Center data.

L​ee then underwent explosive rapid intensification, going from a Category 1 to Category 5 hurricane in just 18 hours Thursday. Only three other Atlantic hurricanes since 1982 had seen their winds increase by 80 mph in 24 hours or less since 1982, most recently Matthew in 2016. It was the fastest 24-hour intensification anywhere in the Atlantic Basin outside the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea in 41 years, according to Kieran Bhatia, a Princeton scientist.

Sustained winds of 160 mph were recorded by hurricane reconnaissance Thursday evening, making it the first Category 5 hurricane since Ian in 2022. Prior to Lee, only 39 other Atlantic hurricanes have reached Category 5 intensity over the past 100 years.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

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