BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Updated to include the lastest as of the 10am update from the National Hurricane CEner
It is important to note, the Brazos Valley falls in the 5-day forecast cone of both Tropical Storms Marco and Laura. With uncertainties lingering in the evolution of these two systems, the margin of error of where the centers will move remains for early-to-mid next week.
Hurricane Hunters have found that Tropical Storm Marco is stronger Saturday morning as it nears the entrance to the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Laura is nearing Puerto Rico with new thunderstorm development taking shape near the center. However, there are several smaller areas of circulation noted as well, that could try to become the storm’s new center after interaction with the island.
The National Hurricane Center places the Brazos Valley in a 30% to 40% chance to experience tropical-storm-force wind as these two tropical storms convene on the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Gusty wind and rain are still possible locally from one or both of these storms as early as Monday afternoon.
TROPICAL STORM MARCO
Tropical Storm Marco is currently located over an area of very warm water, both at the surface and below, and undergoing intensification at a decent rate. Sustained wind with this storm is currently 50mph -- up 10mph from overnight -- which is well below hurricane criteria, for now. Radar data from Cuba gives the idea that Marco may be intensifying further as it nears the Southern Gulf of Mexico. As of the 10am update, Hurricane Hunters found wind sustained at 65mph, up 15mph from overnight. It is currently 9mph short of achieving Category 1 Hurricane status.
Marco is forecast to make a turn to the northwest in the Gulf of Mexico, although there is some question as to exactly when that would happen over the weekend. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center reflects the rapid strengthening happening and now calls for this to be a hurricane before the end of Saturday. Marco is expected to reach the Texas Coast by late Tuesday, with landfall currently estimated near Galveston. The latest forecast holds this as a tropical storm as it moves inland.
TROPICAL STORM LAURA
Tropical Storm Laura remains minimal Saturday morning with sustained wind of 40mph, as it nears Puerto Rico. Multiple areas of smaller circulations have been noted from satellite data, which suggests a new center may form after interaction with the island, Hispaniola, and Cuba. The location of the center being muddled could impact future forecasts of where exactly this system is headed once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
After interaction with land, Laura is expected to strengthen in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, potentially reaching hurricane status before arriving on the Louisiana Coast Wednesday night or very early Thursday morning.
While there is some deviation to the path of Laura once it reaches Louisiana, at this time it does seem reasonable to assume it would make landfall east of Texas. Any impacts to the Brazos Valley will be determined if Laura moves north or northwest after landfall mid-to-late in the week.
There are still many questions regarding the evolution of these two tropical storms. Impacts to the Brazos Valley could begin as early as Tuesday evening or overnight into early Wednesday. Keep up to date on the latest as we continue to monitor an unprecedented weather event unfold in the Gulf of Mexico.
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Saturday morning tropics: Laura and Marco on course to impact Texas and Louisiana - KBTX
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